Life cycle assessment shows that retrofitting coal-fired power plants with fuel cells will substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions

•Wind-electrolysis hydrogen fuel cells have the largest CO2 mitigation potential•CO2, PM2.5, and SO2 potentials of different trajectories are estimated•Fuel reduce over 70% emissions from coal-fired power plants•Deploying in northern China enables environmental benefits has committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2060. One challenges country faces is a transition away emission-intensive energy. To help meet this challenge, plans retrofit its fleet plants (CFPPs) that produce 240 TWh worth electricity with cell (FC) technology 2050. FCs can generate zero-emission provide grid-scale energy storage. However, FC-associated greenhouse gas be generated beyond production at other life cycle stages, such as during mining raw materials, manufacturing, recycling retired FCs. Therefore, extent which will CFPP aspect remains unclear. fill knowledge gap, we consider throughout entire FC for four types compared produced existing CFPPs. We found retrofitting China’s CFPPs these substantially dioxide, particulate matter, sulfur both climate change air quality. Addressing released vital mitigate change. aims replace technologies 2050 achieve carbon-neutrality goals. not emission-free their cycle, effectiveness vary depending on configuration. Despite uncertainties, comprehensive evaluation on-site CFPP-to-FC potential underexplored. Here, use prospective assessment evaluate inclusive via wind power/natural feedstocks. find CO2, decrease 72.0%–97.0%, 55.5%–92.6%, 23.1%–86.1%, respectively, Wind-electrolysis enable reduction, but metals turbines reduces PM2.5 savings. Prioritizing deployment could double potential. Our study provides insights designing roadmaps China. The coal sector accounts more than 50% global capacity1Evans S. Pearce R. Mapped: World’s Coal Power Plants.2020https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plantsGoogle Scholar was responsible approximately 40%, 25%, 5% total SO2, 2020,2Ministry Ecology Environment People’s Republic ChinaEco-environmental Statistics Annual Report.2022Google Scholar,3Guan Y. Shan Huang Q. Chen H. Wang D. Hubacek K. Assessment China's recent emission pattern shifts.Earths Future. 2021; 9e2021EF002241https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002241Crossref Scopus (10) Google posing great decarbonization local citizens’ health.4Li X. César Alejandro Hernández AlvaPower Sector Reform China: An International Perspective.2018Google tackle challenges, it urgent promote clean low-carbon transition. According Energy Agency,5International AgencyAn Roadmap Carbon Neutrality China.https://www.iea.org/reports/an-energy-sector-roadmap-to-carbon-neutrality-in-chinaDate: 2021Google neutrality, share mix needs drop 60% 2020 2060, while percentage renewable rapidly increase 25% 80% same period. Fuel an integral part ambitious strategy, they key solution inherent inflexibility power.6de Chalendar J.A. Benson S.M. Why 100% enough.Joule. 2019; 3: 1389-1393https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2019.05.002Abstract Full Text PDF (20) Scholar,7Fuhrman J. Clarens A.F. McJeon Patel P. Doney S.C. Shobe W.M. Pradhan 2060 goal require up 2.5 GtCO2/year negative deployment.arXiv. 2020; (Preprint at) (2010.06723)Google additional 2,000 GW flexible sources required carbon-neutral system substitute CFPPs.5International Moreover, versatile regard variety feedstocks, ranging natural solar- wind-electrolysis hydrogen, making competitive option coal-based energy-based production.8Staffell I. Scamman Velazquez Abad A. Balcombe Dodds P.E. Ekins Shah N. Ward K.R. role system.Energy Environ. Sci. 12: 463-491https://doi.org/10.1039/c8ee01157eCrossref (1172) Scholar, 9Jensterle M. Narita Piria Samadi Prantner Crone Siegemund Kan Matsumoto T. Shibata Role Clean Hydrogen Future Systems Japan Germany.2019Google 10Mi Shuhua Y.Z. Zhang W. Xu A White Paper Cell Industry (In Chinese). Alliance, 2019Google 11Staffell Zero infinite COP heat CHP.Appl. Energy. 2015; 147: 373-385https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.02.089Crossref (38) China, therefore, set expansion goals, i.e., deploying 5,000 units 2035 20,000 2050, projected ∼60 ∼240 power, respectively.10Mi Scholar,12Lu Cai Souamy L. Song Solid oxide sustainable development over-view.Int. Hydrog. 2018; 43: 12870-12891https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2018.05.008Crossref (33) Understanding replacing essential proper roadmap development, identify environmentally optimal trajectory deploy cells. Although considered zero end-of-pipe perspective,11Staffell upstream processes involve activities, mineral mining, transportion.13Rillo E. Gandiglio Lanzini Bobba Santarelli Blengini G. Life (LCA) biogas-fed solid (SOFC) plant.Energy. 2017; 126: 585-602https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.03.041Crossref (51) Scholar,14Notter D.A. Kouravelou Karachalios Daletou M.K. Haberland N.T. PEM applications: electric mobility μ-CHP.Energy 8: 1969-1985https://doi.org/10.1039/c5ee01082aCrossref (52) few case studies been carried out contribution activities overall Rillo et al.13Rillo revealed per kWh generation induces ∼100 g indirect ∼650 mg emissions. Longo al.15Longo Cellura Guarino F. Brunaccini Ferraro impacts micro-CHP residential application.Sci. Total 685: 59-73https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.368Crossref PubMed (28) evaluated manufacturing process showed contributes ∼40% impact. These verified that, if neglect impacts, leakage problems occur. This lead overestimation CFPP-to-fuel or, even worse, biased decision-making deployment. previous usually focus one many cells, (SOFC), molten carbonate (MCFC), phosphoric acid (PAFC), proton exchange membrane (PEMFC). comparison between various terms potentials, lacking. did future advancement end-of-life technologies, might greatly impact Some pointed technological advances, lowering metal loading or elongating lifetime cells,14Notter Scholar,16Nease Adams T.A. analyses bulk-scale comparisons combined cycle.Can. Chem. Eng. 93: 1349-1363https://doi.org/10.1002/cjce.22207Crossref (14) Scholar,17Smith Ibn-Mohammed Yang Reaney I.M. Sinclair D.C. Koh S.C.L. Comparative profile assessments commercial novel material structures cells.Appl. 235: 1300-1313https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.11.028Crossref (11) alleviate needed assess changes cells’ impacts. In addition, intensity factor determines substitution Researchers8Staffell Scholar,18Staffell Measuring progress decarbonising British electricity.Energy Policy. 102: 463-475https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.12.037Crossref (64) techniques concluded gas-based relatively low. grid-average intensity, may drastically deviate individual plants.19Cui R.Y. Hultman Cui Yu Edwards M.R. Sen Bowman C. Clarke al.A plant-by-plant strategy high-ambition phaseout China.Nat. Commun. 12https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21786-0Crossref (49) For example, Zhou al.20Zhou Wei Z. Liu Kong Li Impact plant shutdown campaign heavy China.Environ. Technol. 53: 14063-14069https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.9b04683Crossref (29) small-sized much higher those average-capacity Currently, thousand strikingly intensities remain operation Ignoring difference marginal adversely affect cumulative estimation. Hence, detailed database high spatial resolution reveal differences comprehensively selected (SOFC, MCFC, PAFC, PEMFC), widely accepted mainstream technologies.21E4techThe Review 2020.2020Google first established inventories (NG) (WEH) Then, LCA used estimate CO2-eq, PM2.5-eq, SO2-eq three major derivatives listed Ambient Air Quality Index. line target then developed based database, assessed potentials. estimated 235–532 Mt, 115–315 kt, 77–471 equivalent 23.1%–86.1% reduction WEH larger NG Comparison suggests should priority. findings only useful tool strategies also fossil-energy-dominated countries formulate appropriate roadmaps. examined dimensions: full technology, changes, trajectories. PEMFC) two feedstocks (NG WEH) establish (see https://github.com/panday1995/2021-FuelCellLCA inventories, Table S1 relevant assumptions, Figure boundary). foreground under scenarios (optimistic pessimistic scenarios). optimistic scenario, (EoL) rate 76% platinum 87% nickel, efficiency due ancillary device consumption, extend 50%, load hours (FLHs) 6,500 h. values aforementioned parameters 35% 30% 15% loss, expansion, 6,000 h FLHs. trajectories, assumed replaced Alliance. following best-policy (BPT) assumes highest cells; capacity-order pathway (CaP) lowest-capacity substituted location consumption (LoC) projects provinces demand rationales experimental procedures). 1 shows breakdown into operational phases CO2-eq range 49.2 55.1 g/kWhe, significantly lower (283.2–357.2 g/kWhe). PM2.5-eq emissions, exhibit feedstock, SOFC, PEMFC, comparable each other. Taking examples, MCFC PAFC slightly SOFC PEMFC resource demands, owing (Table S2). On average, encompass 326.3 0.130 0.451 kWhe (Figure 1A), better combined-cycle turbines.8Staffell Scholar,22Martin-Gamboa Iribarren Dufour Environmental plants: dynamic data envelopment analysis approach.Sci. 615: 29-37https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.243Crossref (40) separately investigated contributions 1B) 1C) characteristics traditional techniques, thermal boiler,23Oberschelp Pfister Raptis C.E. Hellweg Global hotspots generation.Nat. Sustain. 2: 113-121https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0221-6Crossref (88) primarily emits pollutants site. (96.7%–99.5% 84.1%–97.4% cells) still originates operation, notable shifted phase. shift differs across types: PEMFCs, phase 1.43% 1.47%, respectively. Regarding MCFCs, 53.8% 58.9%. 1B component stacks occupy leading all (e.g., 25.6%, 47.9%, 55.1% respectively). nickel SOFCs MCFCs PAFCs PEMFCs main causes associated pollution-heavy extraction processes.14Notter processor constitutes another (28.7%) (29.6%) driven noble-metal catalysts. incur no related processors, electrolytic directly fed hotbed similar conventional techniques. majority ascribed reforming (72.2%–77.8%) 1C). dominant contributor near-zero-emission process. Furthermore, stage. station installation, construction electrolyzers, corresponding take They make emitters Nonetheless, (45.0–48.1 g/kWhe) (73.7–78.9 performed using scenario approach24Arvidsson Tillman A.-M. Sandén B.A. Janssen Nordelöf Kushnir Molander emerging technologies: recommendations LCA.J. Ind. Ecol. 22: 1286-1294https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12690Crossref (125) investigate (including EoL increase, FLH decrease) experienced time generation, readiness level. results show moderately alter 2). (−42.0% 14.6%) (−50.8% 14.3%) occur, moderate variation (−4.10% 14.7%). most sensitive driver (−29.2% 1.17% −16.7% 0.35% (−36.2% 1.57% −26.1% 0.57% cells). loss primary (1.10%–4.02% 4.21%–14.7% leads 11.04–11.83 g/kWhe (15% loss), twice System exerts aggressive improvement (50% extension). least caution cause through physio-chemical mechanisms, thus indirectly affecting cells.11Staffell Alliance target, where stations producing amount electricity. capacity well substituting (calculated according Equations 2) shown 3. It Mt kt reduced transitions CFPPs, respectively.2Ministry BPT doubled Under BPT, 456–477 296–315 396–471 respectively (Figures 3C–3E). Comparatively, CaP 268–289 182–202 216–291 SO2-eq, LoC 235–255 163–182 183–258 SO2-eq. (529–532 BPT; 3F) 248–269 3G) 291–369 3H) comparatively smaller, indicating there trade-offs adopting stock technology. notably different: prioritize (Shanxi, Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi) before 2035, followed northeastern (Liaoning Heilongjiang) 3A 3B). Small-sized mostly exist Jiangsu Zhejiang. Thereby, large northwestern While, trajectory, deployed along southeastern coast Most Guangdong, Yangtze Delta region. classified five groups capacities (refer bottom left Figures small (0–70 MW) Differently, mainly fall 70–440 MW trajectory. structure tends similar, yet differ greatly, because, small- medium-sized constitute capacity. deviates comparable. integrating plant-level dataset work reveals average intensities. methodology framework measure resolution. facilitates site-by-site technologies; hence, accurate estimations scale. Such adopted design coal-dependent countries, India Indonesia, smooth less bioenergy, solar, China,25Kang Bartocci S.S. Wu Fantozzi Bioenergy domestic biomass resources potentials.Renew. Rev. 127: 109842https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.109842Crossref (65) Scholar,26He Lin Sifuentes Abhyankar Phadke Rapid cost renewables storage accelerates system.Nat. 11: 2486https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16184-xCrossref (70) plays unique carbon-peaking First, medium-term c